Theory of Global Warming

Introduction

The theory for global warming is both logical and compelling. As any theory, it starts with premises, tests by interpreting data, and steps through conclusions that follow from the premises. With logic, if the premises are true, the data valid and interpreted correctly, then the conclusions must be accepted.

We need to get this right. If the premises are faulty, the whole thing falls apart. If the data is not appropriate, accurate, and interpreted correctly, the whole thing falls apart. If the conclusions are not supported by the premises and the data, the whole thing falls apart. As much as we would like it to be, it is neither easy nor simple. See if we have this right, then we will examine each premise, the available data, and the steps to the conclusions.

Greenhouse Gasses

There is a positive correlation between the presence of “greenhouse gasses” and the absorption/retention of heat in the atmosphere such that an increase in greenhouse gas will cause an increase in environmental temperature. Carbon Dioxide (CO²) is one of these greenhouse gasses.

Carbon Dioxide

Carbon Dioxide (CO²) is a measurable “greenhouse gas” both in current atmospheric concentrations, and historically through various sampling methodologies, including ice core drillings.

Projections

We can project the impact of various levels of greenhouse gasses on the environment – temperature changes, climatic changes, polar ice caps and glaciers, ocean levels, and bio-feedback.

Impact

Some of the changes resultant from increased CO² levels are self-reinforcing and potentially devastating and outweigh all the impact of bio-feedback or systemic climatic changes that offset increases or compensate for warming from large changes in greenhouse gasses.

External influence

The impact of outside influences, such as variations of the Sun, while complex, is minimal and may be ignored.

CO² levels are increasing

Carbon Dioxide (CO²) levels have increased significantly since the start of the industrial age, and are increasing at a high rate. (It charts as a spike.)

Measuring temperature

We can measure temperatures at many locations around the world and use this data to track global changes over time. We can estimate historic temperatures using sampling of temperature related materials, including sediment.

Temperature is rising

World temperature data shows increases in recent years in correlation with CO² measurements.

Caused by man

Conclusion – Increased CO² levels are caused by man.

Significant change required soon

Conclusion – CO² levels will continue to rise unless significant changes happen soon.

Global Warming is underway

Conclusion – Global Warming is already happening and will continue unless CO² levels are reduced.